Hawkeye Hoops

Iowa 75, The Citadel 53

2006-11-15T20:13:00.000-06:00

Iowa's basketball season is once again underway, and the team's opening night victory got me fired up enough that I figured I'd sneak out of my semi-retirement and bang on the ol' keyboard for a while.

Without further ado, I'll present the same points per possession grid that I used frequently last season. This might be new to some of you, but it's pretty simple after a few minutes, and hopefully rather informative. The table tells you how many points Iowa scored and allowed while each player was on and off the court, as well as how many possessions each player was either in the game or on the bench. For example, Tony Freeman was on the court for 57 of Iowa's 71 offensive possessions, during which time the team scored 55 points, which works out to a not-so-stellar 96.5 points per 100 possessions (PPP). When he was out of the game, Iowa got hot and scored 20 points on just 14 possessions.

Iowa vs. The Citadel
		Off			Def
NAME		Poss	Pts	PPP	Poss	Pts	PPP
Tony	On	57	55	96.5	56	39	69.6
Freeman	Off	14	20	142.9	15	14	93.3

Mike	On	0	0	0.0	0	0	0.0
Henderson	Off	71	75	105.6	71	53	74.6

Adam	On	62	69	111.3	61	47	77.0
Haluska	Off	9	6	66.7	10	6	60.0

Justin	On	55	54	98.2	54	37	68.5
Johnson	Off	16	21	131.3	17	16	94.1

Kurt	On	48	37	77.1	47	33	70.2
Looby	Off	23	38	165.2	24	20	83.3

Seth	On	46	57	123.9	46	21	45.7
Gorney	Off	25	18	72.0	25	32	128.0

Cyrus	On	31	45	145.2	33	31	93.9
Tate	Off	40	30	75.0	38	22	57.9

Tyler	On	15	19	126.7	15	21	140.0
Smith	Off	56	56	100.0	56	32	57.1

Brett	On	19	24	126.3	22	16	72.7
Wessels	Off	52	51	98.1	49	37	75.5

Total		71	75	105.6	71	53	74.6

General Observations
It's kind of difficult to draw too much excitement from a win over The Citadel no matter the final margin, given that they've been one of D-I's worst teams for several years and that their roster included just one player above 6-foot-6, but one game might be enough to affirm some of the suspicions I had during the offseason.

First, I think Iowa has the necessary parts to put together another strong defensive team. The losses from last year were significant, because Iowa must replace a great defensive rebounder (Greg Brunner) and an outstanding shot blocker (Erek Hansen), but I'm still optimistic.

The guys who will be filling those minutes each have something going for them. Seth Gorney, if nothing else, has good size at 7-0, 250. As I recall, that was about all Jeff Hagen had going for him when he manned the middle during Minnesota's stellar defensive campaign of 2004-05. Kurt Looby stands 6-10 with long shot-blocker's arms, and enough quickness and spring in his step to track down a few rebounds. In addition to the 14 boards he grabbed against The Citadel, Looby also led the Prime Time League in rebounding this summer. Cyrus Tate looks fairly strong - he also led Region IX (NE, CO, WY, MT) junior college players in rebounding, and he played for the regions top FG% defense. Everyone raves about freshman Tyler Smith's athleticism, and that can be very effective if properly harnessed by the coaching staff.

As you can see from the table above, Iowa's defense was better when either one of Looby or Gorney were on the court (no doubt because of The Citadel's size issues). But when both played together, Iowa's defense was particularly devastating. The pair shared the court for 26 defensive possessions, during which time The Citadel managed only 5 points on 2 of 19 shooting! Interestingly, when Looby played without Gorney, Iowa allowed 28 points on 21 possessions (133.3 PPP). When Gorney was in without the lanky Antiguan, Iowa's defense allowed a stingier 80.0 PPP. Perhaps Looby isn't strong enough to patrol the lane by himself, but give him a 7-footer to stand by and you might just have a formidable barrier to the basket!

Another thing I'm very excited about this year - Iowa's best offensive player will finally be it's primary scoring option! Two years ago, Iowa was all about he who will not be named, who took something like a third of the team's shots. Last year, everything went through Brunner and Jeff Horner while Adam Haluska was at times an afterthought. OK, that's probably overstating it, but at least admit that Haluska's combination of skills (3pt shooting, driving, foul shooting, posting up) was the most likely to succeed when used in high volume (as opposed to Horner's Hail Mary threes and Brunner's 45% shooting). Anyway, it was good to see Haluska off to a hot start Monday night when rained in 29 points with a 68.8 efg% to go with an impressive 6 dimes and 5 rebounds. Whatever happens this year, it should be fun watching him put up big numbers. He'll have the green light all year.

Unfortunately, that's all there's time for right now. . . . .

Moving Day

2005-12-16T08:21:00.000-06:00

Hawkeye Hoops is moving! The new location is www.hawkeyehoops.com. I recommend updating your bookmarks, and if you link to this blog, I'd appreciate it if you updated that too.

Gone Fishing

2005-12-14T16:41:00.000-06:00

With the abundance of finals and relative dearth of basketball games this week, these past few days felt like a good time to take a short break from blogging. I'll be back tomorrow.

Word On The Street

2005-12-09T08:21:00.000-06:00

I hear there's some kind of game going on over in Ames tonight. In case you've been cryogenically frozen for the past few years, Adam Haluska's return to his former home court will be a major storyline. Nick Richards expects an active Hilton crowd -

[Haluska] will hear a chorus of boos in the pre-game introductions, will be
booed each time he touches the ball, and will be on the receiving end of taunts
throughout the contest. "It doesn't bother me that much," he said. "I know they
are going to be on me, a little bit."

Think that's a tad bit of an understatement? Susan Harman, meanwhile, has heard enough about the situation. She would rather focus on more relevant matters, like who will pick up Jeff Horner's 33 mpg, and how the newly assembled backcourt will handle Iowa State's vaunted zone press. She says what's on every Hawk fan's mind -

It's not the optimum game to insert a freshman point guard considering this is
the most hostile gym Iowa will play in this season. ISU has one of the best sets
of guards in the country (Curtis Stinson and Will Blalock) and the Cyclones like
to press opponents into submission.

Randy Peterson agrees that the pressure will be on Tony Freeman -

Iowa's primary concern is the Cyclones' defensive pressure. Freeman, therefore,
will be a focus for defensive trappers Curtis Stinson and Will Blalock.

I'm strangely optimistic that Freeman plays big minutes and plays them quite well. There will likely be more turnovers from him than you'd expect from Horner, but I really like how he's played so far, especially defensively.

Another interesting story for this game - apparently Iowa State's Government of the Student Body reserved about 50 "prime" student section seats for legislators as part of their lobbying efforts to fight tuition increases. Many students are not happy. GSB president Angela Groh tries to mitigate the damage here.

Another Game, Another Blogger Interview

2005-12-08T19:28:00.000-06:00

In anticipation of the tomorrow's big showdown with Iowa State, I tracked down another basketball blogger and asked for his opinions on a few important topics. Today's featured guest is Alex, an Iowa State student who dabbles in all things Cyclone at his blog, CrossCyed.

Iowa State has already played close to and lost to some unheralded teams this year. Is this another slow start, like last year, or is this year's team just not as good?

Well, I personally think it’s a combination of both. ISU certainly has a history of playing down to the level of teams in all sports. I also think the team is having a really hard time replacing the scoring of Jared Homan and the rebounding of both Homan and Damion Staple. However, the post is beginning to show signs of improvement. Even with Hilton being a tough place to play, it seems like the team typically is a bit down when the students are gone, as was the case with the Iona game. However, Iona is no pushover, led by a strong senior class. It’s tough to say much about the quality of the team. Stinson and Blalock are as solid as ever, Rahshon Clark has been “wow”, and we have a bench. However, post play continues to be an issue.

What do you consider to be Iowa State's biggest strength? Biggest weakness?

The biggest strength is obvious, with the guard play of Curtis Stinson and Will Blalock. They are frequently regarded as a top backcourt in the country. The two certainly present matchup problems. The super-emergence of Rahshon Clark, who is shooting a blistering 62% this year, while leading the team in rebounds, blocks and boyish exuberance, is helping take the pressure off the guards with his 15 ppg, while at the same time playing a solid 4, despite being 6-6. He’s as much fun as anyone you may see play all year. The biggest weakness is, as mentioned before, post play. The Cyclones have been playing a smaller lineup, with Rahshon at the 4, so that only one of the new big guys is in at once. Against Fresno State, the three main bigs, Shawn Taggart, Jiri Hubalek (pronounced Yuri Who-Ball-ick – impress your friends with your knowledge), and Ross Marsden collected four boards. Curtis Stinson had seven. Each player has their issues. Taggart can shoot, but isn’t much in the posting-up department. Also can’t play a lick of defense, despite being in a 2-3. Taggart also likes to foul. Marsden may be the smartest post, noted for being coachable. However, I was also called “most coachable” on my high school team, and I averaged less than a point a game. However, the coaches feel he is adjusting, and I believe with each game, he’s getting a little better. He has potential to be a Paul Shirley-type in time. My favorite out of the bunch is Hubalek. He came out of Marshalltown Community College shooting 61%. He’s probably the best option down low, but still seems a little unsure. If he’s tentative, ISU is in trouble. If he flys around like he did against Fresno State in the first half, Drake and Mountain State, you can probably expect 10 and 6 out of him, which would be a minor victory.

What's the undercurrent on campus regarding Adam Haluska's return to Ames? Can the crowd possibly treat him worse than they did with Pierre Pierce in 2003?

Depends. I do think he will draw more ire, as there is the perception that he lied to the Cyclone fanbase and is basically a turncoat. I don’t know if the chants will be near as vulgar as they were for Pierce, but then again, he didn’t commit a crime. If anyone remembers when Raef LaFrentz, Nick Collision on Kirk Hinrich played against ISU, the treatment should be the same but louder. Remember, Hinrich had committed to ISU then switched to Kansas. ISU fans were pissed at what could have been, as the Elite Eight team would also have had Hinrich to go along with Fizer and Tinsley. That team would have caused havoc. There hasn’t been a great hate of him being expressed on campus, but it’s a college. Your star recruit transferred, after saying he wouldn’t, to your archrival. Most Cyclone fans realize this will be his only appearance at Hilton.

What one thing must Iowa State do to win this game?

This is actually kind of tough. I want to say rebound, but we can win while being outrebounded. I’d say we need to keep Iowa off the line, while also preventing big runs. (That’s two, oh well). Iowa State has had a serious foul problem this year, sending the other team to the line way too often. Of course, these teams don’t seem to miss, either. As far as the runs go, Iowa State was in control of Fresno until giving up a 15-0 run. Fresno hit 7-10 three pointers in the half, and ISU couldn’t climb any closer. It’s some pretty basic basketball stuff, but it really is what Iowa State needs.

Anthony Davis missed most of last year with a shoulder injury. What role does he fill now that he's back?

Depends on the night. He’s a physical 3 who isn’t afraid to post up. He also can hit the three on any given night, but is also just as capable of an 0-fer. He’ll most likely start, but is usually quiet on the court. He’s saved ISU once this season, but he still doesn’t seem to be a big part of the system, despite being a senior. Wayne Morgan loves him, however, following him over from Long Beach State, so he’ll get his minutes.

Which of the new post players will have the biggest impact? What specific skills do they provide? What do they need to improve?

Shawn Taggart, either positive or negative, will most likely have the biggest impact. He’s capable of 20 points on any night. He’s also capable of giving up big points.. He has a sweet shooting touch and can hit a turnaround down low. He’s impressive with his back to the basket. His rebounding is nonexistent, however. He is ready offensively, but is nowhere near ready to be a top-tier post until he can rebound or play D. My favorite is Jiri Hubalek. He’s got potential to be the next Martin Rancik. He will most likely get the start. He’s getting to the point where he’s somewhat used to the system. He is the most aggressive post player, which still leaves some to be desired. Will run the court and play active D, but is also prone to the foul.

Is Curtis Stinson really among the best basketball players in the country?

He can be. I know you think he is overrated. I do think he has improved this season. He seems to be a big game player, which does seem to hurt in games against teams like Iona. He has an ability to create shots and body up like few guards that there are out there. His three point shooting has improved this year and is still the player that any Cyclone fan wants with the ball to take the shot. The “teardrop” has somewhat disappeared, but is still accurate when he shoots it. A lot of other fans around the nation don’t realize that he played hurt much of last year, and has still had hand problems this year. Just ask Bill Self about Stinson’s effect on opposing teams.

Will this year's Cyclone squad have any consistent three-point threat?

So far, yes. Will Blalock is shooting 48% from behind the arc, while Rahshon Clark is hitting at a 42% clip. Shooting has definitely improved over last year, as ISU has been hitting just under half it’s shots as a team this year. Blalock may be the best shooter on the team, but he tends to get streaky. Clark has just gone bonkers this year. He will be the one to watch. Stinson is always a threat to hit a three, especially in clutch situations. Davis either is on fire or is icy. Tasheed Carr has been having a horrible sophomore slump. He’s capable of carrying a team on a good night (see ISU’s win @ Texas last year), but this season has been murder on him. He’s still hurt, and may not play. John Neal hasn’t hit much of anything since the last Iowa @ ISU game, but he finally hit two against Drake. The feel from Coach Morgan is that he will get more minutes if Carr cannot go. Hubalek and Taggart are also capable of hitting deep.

As a fan, is a win against Iowa more gratifying than any other team?

It’s the biggest nonconference game this year. Ohio State is close, however. The conference season means quite a bit to ISU. If Kansas was not so down this year, that’d be the game to watch. The big game is against Texas at Hilton. Beating Iowa is gratifying for Iowa State fans in just about any sport, but I also think that there is less emphasis in men’s basketball with Iowa State playing teams tough in the Big 12 in recent years. Iowa State – Kansas may not be considered a rivalry on the Jayhawk side, but ISU fans probably enjoy beating Kansas as much as they do the Hawks. Of course, with Iowa being a top 15 team, the game is not only a rivalry game, but a chance to pull an “upset”, so there will be extra hype in that regard. If it came down to beating Texas or beating Iowa this year, I’d pick Texas, if they are actually a top 5 team. Then again, I also think they are overrated.

Is there a better way to spend $3.00 than on a Clone Cone?

I don’t eat often at sporting events. I usually feel like crying after realizing the money that’s gone after I buy food at ISU games. Of course, the environment is worth it. I’ve been to both Carver and Hilton, and Hilton is the premier place for basketball in Iowa. Iowa fans who have never been to Hilton will appreciate the comfort of the arena, while also witnessing Hilton Magic. Crazy stuff can happen to opposing teams in Ames.

Whoa, no Clone Cones? You're missing out on one the key ingredients to the Hilton experience! For the uninitiated, the Clone Cone is a divine swirl of strawberry and banana flavored ice cream. It's so good, chocolate and vanilla aren't even offered at the arena (at least I looked hard enough to find any).

Anyway, thanks for the time, Alex.

I also answered a few questions about the game over at Alex's blog - they should be up sometime tonight, so go check it out. I should have a few stats and notes ready sometime tomorrow morning, then it's off to Ames to see the game. I can't wait.

Horner Out 2 to 5 Weeks

2005-12-07T23:07:00.000-06:00

Read about it in the DM Register. Sounds like he tore a knee ligament. A two week absence would put Horner back before Christmas and in time for the last two non-conference games against Robert Morris and St. Louis. Being gone five weeks would get him back a couple weeks into January, after missing two conference games against Wisconsin and Illinois.

Upcoming Schedule
12/09 @ Iowa State
12/17 vs Arizone State
12/20 vs Drake
12/21 two weeks from now
12/30 @ St. Louis
01/05 @ Wisconsin
01/07 vs Illinois
01/11 five weeks from now
01/14 @ Penn State

There's never a good time for a knee injury, but it's better now than later in the season. Maybe now Freeman and Reed can gain beneficial experience? We'll see.

Bite-Sized UNI Thoughts, Vol. II

2005-12-07T16:29:00.000-06:00

One lingering question I have about Iowa's overtime period against UNI - is Greg Brunner really our best option for the opening tip-off? The jump ball seems kind of trivial in normal games, but it's huge in overtime, where each team only gets the ball a handful of times. It was especially big in this game, since the pace was so slow, meaning each team got fewer chances to score. Allow me to explain - [Note -I extrapolated this idea from some work Ken Pomeroy did a while back.]

When you win the jump ball, you will either end the period with 1) the same number of possessions as your opponent, or 2) one more possession than your opponent (if you win the tip and have the ball at the end of the game). If we assume both teams average the same number of points per possession (which is reasonable, since they did tie through the first 40 minutes), we can use the Pythagorean formula to estimate their chances of winning.

If the teams average 1 point per possession, and they each have 10 possessions in the overtime period, they will average 10 points. In repeated simulation (or in the long run, so to speak), Team A's expected winning percentage is -

10 pts^10 / (10 pts^10 + 10 pts allowed^10) = .500

Simply put, if two equal teams are given an equal number of possesions, they should have an equal chance of winning. If we give one of the teams an extra possession, however, that team's odds are significantly improved, even though the teams are equally matched. Let's say Team A wins the tip and has the ball 8 times, while Team B only gets it 7 times.

8^10 / (8^10 + 7^10) = .792

So in repeated trials, Team A will win 79% of the time of whenever they have one extra possession.

The team that wins the tip won't always get the extra possession, but they'll never do worse than 50/50. If we assume that the average tip, then, is worth half a possession, the result is something like this (for an 8 possession period, i.e. - the same as the Iowa / UNI game) -

8.5^10 / (8.5^10 + 8^10) = .647

That means that UNI probably increased their chance of winning by 15% simply by winning the jump ball. All of which brings me back to my original question - can we do better than Brunner on the jump ball? I know he's a "savvy veteran" and all that, but jump balls basically come down to 1) height, 2) jumping ability, and 3) timing. I think Brunner is lacking in the first two, at least relative to a couple teammates. Can Brunner really outjump the 6-11, long-armed Erek Hansen, who also started overtime? Can he really outjump the taller, sky-walking Doug Thomas? I don't know the answer to the these questions, but leave a comment if you think you do (somebody with coaching experience want to chime in? BillH?).

Additional note - I'd be really interested to see someone to a study to test this theory against empirical data. It's pretty straightforward - just find the percentage of overtime games that are won by the team that won the overtime tip-off. I checked the play-by-play data for a few of this year's overtime games, and the tip-winner tends to be also be the winner at the end of the game.

Bite-Sized UNI Thoughts, Vol. I

2005-12-07T16:08:00.000-06:00

This UNI recap was getting a little out of hand, so I decided to break it down into more digestible pieces.

First, let's engage in some much-needed damage mitigation. Losing sucks, losing to an in-state rival sucks even more, but losing on the road to a legitimate Top 25 team is not the end of the world. It just affirms that we're probably more in the 15-20 range than the 5-10 we were inching toward. The collective reaction around here seems to be "The sky is falling!" or "Here we go again..." Would it be the same if we lost at Wake Forest, or at Boston College (who both rate much closer to UNI in more objective statistical measures than they do in the actual polls)? I highly doubt it. By the end of the season, this game will still be "one that got away," but a little distance will make it look like much less of a disaster.

Second, what's much more important right now than the outcome of this game is the health of Jeff Horner. If you didn't see the game, Jeff collapsed on the court while chasing Ben Jacobson around a screen. His knee gave out on him when he tried to push of his left leg. Jeff was able to limp off the court, but he missed the rest of the game. The Register reported today that Jeff has a torn posterior cruciate ligament (that picture on the left should look familiar) and will be out 2 to 5 weeks.

I'm no doctor, but the ten minutes of reading I did on the PCL suggest that Jeff damaged the ligament(s) on the play where he fell on his knee after driving to the lane and getting fouled (which happened a couple minutes before he finally left. This of course raises the question why he was back in the game a minute later, but it sounds like Jeff told the staff he was OK to go). Since the PCL keeps the femur from moving too far forward, his knee was now de-stabilized to a certain extent, which resulted in it giving out when he tried to push off of it when chasing down Jacobson. Keep in mind that this is an extremely amateur observation.

How did the injury affect Iowa in this game? For starters, Jacobson caught fire as soon as Horner left. Jeff and Adam Haluska were doing a great job of shutting Jacobson down through the first 36 and a half minutes of the game. Horner left the first time after making his free throws at the 3:30 mark of the second half. On the next trip down, Jacobson did a nice Moses impression when he cut between the parted Grant Stout and Eric Coleman on the left wing. The two big men stepped toward each other to seal off a trailing Mike Henderson, who could only watch as Jacobson nailed a three. Next trip down - Horner is back in, guarding Jacobson. He fell to the floor, grabbing the knee, leaving Ben open for another easy three. Next trip down - Henderson back on defese....Jacobson dribbles Henderson into a Coleman screen, then hits from the top of the key. And within the span of 65 seconds, a 5 point Iowa lead turned into a 2 point deficit. I gotta hand it to Jacobson, that was really impressive.

Once we got into overtime, it was pretty clear that the offense was running without it's leader. The first two offensive possessions consisted of passing the ball back and forth on the perimeter until someone felt open enough to brick a three. Two of the next three trips resulted in Henderson going one-on-one and attacking the basket. Sure, it worked, but I'd rather not rely on Mike to be the go-to-guy at the end of games. Our offense will definitely miss Horner's playmaking while he's gone.

Your thoughts on Horner's value to the team? Leave 'em in the comments.

Northern Iowa 67, Iowa 63 (OT)

2005-12-07T07:24:00.000-06:00

I have a lot of stuff to take care of today, but I'll be back this afternoon with more than my two cents worth about the loss up in Cedar Falls last night. In the meantime, you can check out -

- Rick Brown talks up Erik Crawford's overtime heroics in his game recap.

- Susan Harman thinks that UNI's offensive rebounds in overtime decided the game.

- Jason Brummond says Iowa's offense struggled after the injury to Jeff Horner (but you already knew that).

- Nick Richards thinks the Horner injury might eventually be Alford's new scapegoat (let's not go there yet).

State Championship Week

2005-12-06T13:24:00.000-06:00

That fabled time of year is once again upon us - Iowa's four D-I basketball schools meet up, round-robin style, to earn the bragging rights of the state champion. The stakes are higher than normal (ever?) this year, with three teams coming off NCAA tournament bids and projected to return.

Iowa went 3-0 to win the title last year, but they also had the two toughest games at home. This year, they must play at both Northern Iowa and Iowa State. Two wins this week will go a long way toward legitmizing this year's Hawkeye squad in my ever-pessimistic mind.

Iowa State is out to the early lead this year, having already beaten UNI and Drake. If Iowa wins tonight, the stage will be set for an intense Friday showdown at Hilton Coliseum, in a game that would essentially determine the state champ.

Here's the schedule of this year's games -

11/29 - Iowa State 68, UNI 61
12/05 - Iowa State 89, Drake 74
12/06 - Iowa @ UNI
12/09 - Iowa @ Iowa State
12/20 - Drake @ Iowa

That's not to say, of course, that Iowa should look past tonight's game. They're 0 for their last 2 trips to the UNI-Dome, and the Panthers look as tough as ever. Tonight's lineups will look like -

NORTHERN IOWA			IOWA
Player	Height	Pos	Player	Height	Pos
Brooks McKowen	6-2	G	Mike Henderson	6-2	G
Ben Jacobson	6-3	G	Jeff Horner	6-3	G
Erik Crawford	6-3	G	Adam Haluska	6-5	G
Eric Coleman	6-6	F	Greg Brunner	6-7	F
Grant Stout	6-8	F	Erek Hansen	6-11	C
Bench
John Little	5-11	G	Doug Thomas	6-8	F
Atila Santos	6-10	C	Tony Freeman	6-1	G
			Alex Thompson	6-9	F
			Carlton Reed	6-4	G

Susan Harman did a good job of pointing out the many similarities between these two teams. To that I would add - both have starting guards who can play a lot of minutes while contributing very little, and both have guys named Eric who spell their name weird. One similarity actually worth talking about - both UNI and Iowa have guards capable of shooting very well, but all are off to cold starts.

Player	04-05 eFG%	05-06 eFG%
Ben Jacobson	.581	.474
Erik Crawford	.557	.425
Jeff Horner	.526	.399
Adam Haluska	.569	.475

Iowa and UNI are both really good at limiting second-chance points and post defense in general (at least this year, anyway), so the team that wins might just be the team that busts out of its perimeter slump. Iowa showed signs of doing just that by shooting 7-16 on threes against Valparaiso on Saturday.

As far as other things to expect, it might be helpful to look at last year's stats, since both teams return all their starters. Northern Iowa's offense was fairly successful because they did two things well - shooting and taking care of the ball. Check their national rankings for offense (2004-05) -

eFG% - 20
TO% - 6
oRb% - 310
FTM/FGA - 261

The offensive rebounding numbers seem consistent with a team that would rather get back defensively to take away transition baskets. Since UNI plays at a pretty slow pace (241st in possessions per game last year, 301st so far this year), that's a likely scenario. I really haven't seen them play much since they're not on TV very often here, so maybe you can fill me in if I'm incorrect there.

Since the game probably will be slowed down, I'd again suggest that Iowa better not make some of the unforced turnovers that have plagued them in recent games, as there will be fewer than normal opportunities to make up for them. UNI isn't that deep though, so it's unlikely they'll want to pressure Iowa's guards anyway.

Last year's game went down to the wire. Jacobson missed a jumper with six seconds left that would've given UNI the lead. Just about everyone is back tonight, so I'm looking forward to another intrastate classic.

We're #1! We're #1!

2005-12-05T03:38:00.000-06:00

With all attentions focused on criticizing Iowa's offensive struggles (and there have been struggles), I doubt many Hawk-watchers are tuned in to the fact that they've been following one of the best defensive teams in the country. I'm not immune, either - images of missed open jumpers and passes thrown out of bounds tend to linger in my head and limit my ability to process the good things happening at the other end of the court.

I knew the Hawks were putting up good numbers on defense, but since I figured that that was common for most major conference teams this early in the year, I didn't give it much thought. So it was with some surprise that I found Iowa at the top of the list when I clicked over to Ken Pomeroy's rankings of points allowed per possession (through Saturday's games).

While their spot in the ranking was a bit unexpected, it's not that surprising that Iowa is quite good defensively. They finished last year ranked #29 in Ken's list, which sorts teams by defensive efficiency and adjusts for the strength of the offenses they played. The players they return from that squad include two great defensive rebounders, a terrific shot blocker, and some pesky guards, and the recruiting class added another quick on-the-ball defender.

Can Iowa maintain this strong start? Well, first we should establish what is at the root of this performance level. Here are the team's national rankings in the four most important areas -

eFG% allowed - 7
TO forced - 76
Def Reb% - 57
Opp FTA/FGA - 17

I don't think they'll be #1-good all season, but there's no reason they can't be in the top 10 or 15. For starters, it's seems unlikely that Iowa will continue to rank this high in turnovers forced. There aren't many Maryland-Eastern Shores or Texas-San Antonios left on the schedule, and Iowa doesn't usually go out of their way to force turnovers.

It's interesting that Iowa ranks so high in last category, which measures how often the opponent shoots free throws. With Erek Hansen and Doug Thomas constantly in foul trouble last year, this was a bit of a problem. Through 8 games, both guys have gotten called for far fewer fouls. Here are the main post players' fouls per 40 minutes -

Player.............PF/40, 04-05......PF/40, 05-06
Thomas.................7.0......................5.3
Hansen..................6.7......................5.7
Brunner..................3.8......................3.0

That's a very nice development, and probably has a lot to do with the first category (eFG%), at least for Iowa. Fewer fouls means Hansen can play more mintues. When he's in the lineup, opposing teams are having a very tough time getting a good shot in the paint. You might remember the shutdown job he had at the end of the Kentucky game, but the job he did against Texas stands out, too. Hansen was keeping LaMarcus Aldridge from doing much damage (despite a poster dunk or two), but then he picked up his third foul early in the second half and took a long seat. While he was gone, Aldridge put his height advantage to good use against Iowa's shorter forwards. The final numbers from that game were telling -

IA Defense, vs Texas........Pts....Poss....Efficiency
with Hansen........................32.......39..........84.2
w/o Hansen.........................36.......29........124.1

As long as Hansen can keep himself on the court, Iowa should hold its opponent to a low eFG%, which is the most important part of defense.

As for the remaining category - defensive rebounding - Iowa looks to be in good shape. Brunner and Thomas were both among the Big Ten's best defensive rebounders last year, and Hansen has been contributing more on the glass this year than ever before. It's no sure thing that he'll maintain that feistiness against some of the tough Big Ten guys, but several of the opposing centers this year haven't exactly been pushovers.

Now let's just hope the guys can get their offense back to last year's level so they don't have to always play lights-out defense to win.

Weekend Wrap-up

2005-12-05T00:13:00.000-06:00

Iowa won two games this weekend to win another Hawkeye Challenge, but the Hawks lost some of the buzz that they created in the previous week against three ranked teams. After good showings against Kentucky, Texas, and North Carolina State, the games with Fairfield and Valparaiso were a little more competitive than many expected.

Iowa opened the weekend with a 75-59 victory over a tiny Fairfield team. Though they started no one taller than 6-4, the Stags hung around with a mixture of scrappiness and strategy. Their presses and zones frustrated the Hawks into 20 turnovers, and some hot three point shooting kept them within five points until the 3:30 mark of the second half. The Hawks poured it on the rest of the way, but they failed to meet the raised expectations of a top 15 team.

There were bright spots, of course. With the considerable height advantage, Iowa was able to dominate the paint at both ends of the floor. Greg Brunner made all eight of his field goals and shot eight free throws, and the team finished 20 for 30 (67%) inside the arc. That made up for several missed outside jumpers and fueled a season-high .573 eFG%.

At the other end, Brunner, Doug Thomas, and especially Erek Hansen dominated inside. Iowa finished with 11 blocks, though Fairfield only attempted 38 two point shots. With Hansen increasing the difficulty of almost every shot he didn't get his hands on, the Stags made 16%(!) of those two's. With essentially five guards in most of their lineups, they kept both their players and the ball moving, which resulted in quite a few good looks (and 12 makes) from long range. While the overall defensive effort was good, the perimeter letdown might raise concerns for future opponents like Northwestern and Ohio State.

Given the huge disparity in this game's shooting performances (.573 eFG% to .358), it's surprising the score was even close. The aforementioned turnovers were the culprit here, as Iowa's ballhandlers struggled when faced with a little pressure. They have a few days to get everyone back on the same page, so let's hope they get it figured out before Friday, when they head to Ames to face a far more athletic group in a much more hostile environment.

Saturday's game put Iowa up against Valparaiso, who beat Tulane in the first round. Their offense was centered around one versatile player, Dan Oppland, and their defense featured a strong 6-11 center in Mohamed Kone. Though Valpo presented a different challenge, the end result was a similarly un-lopsided 72-59 victory.

Kone and company were tough on Iowa's post players. Brunner, Hansen and Thomas combined to shoot 7 for 22 (32%) with 8 turnovers. This continues something of a trend for the Hawks, who have struggled inside against teams with tall, strong centers. The following are Iowa's two-point percentages in a few recent games.

Kentucky, 42.2%
Texas, 44.7
NC State, 33.3
Valparaiso, 40.5

It's arguable whether Kentucky meets the criteria, since their 7-footers only combined for 17 minutes, but they're another data point in the pattern - Iowa has a hard time scoring against bigger post defenders.

Another disturbing trend is the recent explosion of Hawkeye turnovers. Through five games Iowa was turning the ball over slightly less than 20% of the time, which is reasonable for early season games. In the last three games, though, the team's turnover rates have been 27, 28, and 24%. Yikes. A lot of that seems to be dumb stuff like dropped passes and miscommunication, which I would think will drop as everyone plays more together, but it's definitely something to keep on eye on. We are eight games into the season, after all.

In most of Iowa's games this season, poor shooting inside would doom the offense, but not Saturday. The guards finally put together the game that fans had been waiting for, hitting 7 of 16 threes (44%). It was the first time Iowa broke even 30% in their last six games (ugh). Tony Freeman knocked one down after hitting two on Friday, which is encouraging for a team in need of perimeter scorers.

All in all, it's two more wins, even if they were less than outstanding. The defense continues to impress, and is actually ranked #1 in the country in points allowed per possession. Texas is still the only team to score above a meager 85 PPP, so the guys deserve a lot of credit for bringing the intensity every night. If / when the offense turns the corner, Iowa will look much more like a team worthy of the top 10-15 ranking it will draw on Monday.

Random Stuff

Jeff Horner was named MVP of the Challenge, despite shooting only 30% for the weekend. His two game averages were 15.5 pts, 5.5 reb, 8.0 ast, 2 TO, and 2 stl. Brunner finished with 16.0 pts, 12.0 reb, and 4.0 TO with a .58 FG%.
The weekend crowds were a far cry from the masses that attended the NC State game, though it did snow quite a bit both nights.
I was pretty excited to see Freeman take shots whenever he had an opening. The offense can really use some extra firepower, especially from the outside, so I hope Tony will continue to shoot like he did this weekend.

Weekend Reading

2005-12-02T14:02:00.000-06:00

With baseball in the rear view mirrow and college football slowing down, Scott Long of The Juice Blog put together a college basketball preview series this week. He interviewed two notable fellow bloggers, John Gasaway (the Big Ten Wonk) and Ken Pomeroy, and even sought the opinion of yours truly. He concluded the series with his own tournament forecast. It should be noted that in last year's preview (written on December 1), Scott listed three of the Final Four teams (Illinois, UNC, and Michigan State) among his top six. Read up.

Also, there's a new poll at the right. Do your part.

Hawkeye Challenge Starts Tonight

2005-12-02T08:31:00.000-06:00

Iowa vs Fairfield
8:11 pm CST

Iowa's annual home tournament gets underway at 5:45 tonight with a matchup between Tulane and Valparaiso. The lucky winner will know a day earlier that they'll leave Iowa City with only one loss. C'mon, we've all come to learn that major conference teams don't lose at their own tournaments (*cough, cough*), and this weekend will be no different.

Coach Alford, like any other coach, takes a more modest approach, bringing up Fairfield's recent three point loss to the Big East's Providence and the tournament history of both Tulane and Valparaiso. Nice spin coach, but PC isn't exactly a power team this year, Valpo's vaunted tourny history includes one win (but what a win it was....remember Bryce Drew in 1998?), and Tulane's last NCAA tournament victory came in 1995. Tradition is nice, but it doesn't do a lot for any of these teams this weekend. [But I'll give Tulane a free pass from criticism this weekend - they were one of the New Orleans teams displaced by Hurricane Katrina. Susan Harman has more.]

Back to Fairfield, Iowa' opponent tonight. They're coming off a decent run in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference, finishing in the top three for three straight years. Unfortunately, the outlook isn't so rosy this year. They lost Deng Gai, the nation's top shot blocker (per game) last year and the MAAC's defensive POY for each of the past three seasons. He leaves a big hole to fill, as Fairfield's biggest regular this year, Marty O'Sullivan, stands 6-7, 230. Fairfield has responded by jacking up more threes - 30% of their attempts were threes last year; the figure is 38% through three games this year.

If O'Sullivan is the biggest guy on the team, the rest can't exactly be giants either -

G - Terrence Todd, 6-0
G - Jonathan Han, 6-0
G - Michael Bell, 6-4
F - Alvin Carter, 6-4
F - Marty O'Sullivan, 6-7

The bench doesn't look much bigger. Danny Oglesby (6-3) and Michael Van Schaick (6-2) are the only others averaging 10 mpg. As expected, Fairfield is getting beaten pretty badly on the boards - Providence grabbed 48% of their offensive rebound opportunities against the Stags.

Anybody remember Michael Bell? He played at Marshalltown and was first team all-state in 4A back in 2002. I'm sure Larry Morgan and Mac McCausland will bring him to your attention tonight, should you be watching from home. Bell's reputation is the designated shooter, and he has a decent 37% career 3pt%, though he's off to a Horner-esque start at 6 for 21 (29%) so far.

Facing an undersized squad should give Iowa a great opportunity to re-establish their inside game tonight, which has been noticably absent in the games against ranked teams. Kentucky, Texas, and NC State held Iowa to 42, 45, and 33% shooting on their two-point shots, respectively. There were a lot of shots swatted by that trio's assortment of trees, as well as a lot of bunnies missed by Iowa. It's hard to imagine the former will be a factor tonight. I'd expect Greg Brunner to improve on the .310 FG% he posted over his last three games.

The bigger issue on many fans' minds seems to be the dismal three-point shooting of Adam Haluska and Jeff Horner. Maybe they'll get a chance to work on that tonight, but my guess is that Iowa will just pound away inside against Fairfield's dimunitive roster.

One final thought (and feel free to comment on this) - anyone have a guess as to what the crowd will be like this weekend? It was awesome having the Hawks Nest filled from top to bottom on Wednesday, and I'm hoping the crowd's intensity of that game's final few minutes, combined with the win, left a good taste in everyone's mouth and encourages them to come back for some of these less exciting games. I know I'll be there.

Oh Happy Day

2005-12-02T08:00:00.000-06:00

Ken Pomeroy broke out his comprehensive possession-based stats page for the 2005-06 season. Stats nerds (myself included) rejoice from coast to coast. Now you can check each team's offensive and defensive efficiency and see how they compare to every other team in the country. The offense and defense summary pages break down the two categories into Dean Oliver's Four Factors (click on Articles, it's at the top of the list)- shooting efficiency, turnover rate, offensive rebounding, and free throw frequency.

A little sampler.....
[the stats and abbreviations are explained in my Stats Primer]

Iowa, through 6 games
Offensive Efficiency - 96.7, 154th nationally
eFG% - 45.5%, 232
TO% - 20.6%, 105
oRb% - 36.7%, 77
FTM/FGA - .232, 186

Defensive Efficiency - 74.3, 5th nationally
eFG% - 39.9%, 14
TO% - 27.2%, 26
dRb% - 73.0%, 57
FTA/FGA - .241, 29

In short, Iowa's offense has been painful to watch at many times (the last ten days certainly come to mind), but they've been making up for it with a top ten defense. It's hard to place much stock in season statistics this early on, as many teams have only played two or three times, and against widely varying levels of competition, but given that Iowa has already played three ranked teams, their defensive numbers look downright gaudy.

Their game-by-game defensive efficiency (or points allowed per 100 possessions) -
UMES - 51.7
Colgate - 79.4
Kentucky - 85.2
Texas - 104.9
Tex-SA - 68.1
NC State - 60.4

According to Ken, the national average for PPP stands at about 96.0. So, against a fairly tough schedule, Iowa's offense has been about average, while the defense has been outstanding. A couple cake games this weekend should help to improve that poor shooting and the overall outlook of the offense.

Iowa 45, NC State 42

2005-11-30T23:49:00.000-06:00

Hawks score 45........and WIN! That was easily one of the most fun basketball games at Carver-Hawkeye in the last year and a half, despite the low score. The guys just put forth a hell of a defensive effort to pull it out. Unfortunately, I'm one of those early-to-rise types, and it's well past my bed time. Back tomorrow.

Last Minute Look - NC State

2005-11-30T14:46:00.000-06:00

If you haven't heard already, North Carolina State should provide a strong challenge for Iowa's perimeter defense tonight. Their lineup is filled with versatile guys who can knock down jumpers, and they take a lot of them. The team plays a patient style that usually results in good shots for the offense.

NC State returns seven of their top nine guys from a team that excelled at shooting threes last year. 42% of the team's shots were from long range, and they connected on 37% of them (which is the equivalent of 55.5% on two point shots). Through five games, this year's team is shooting even more threes - a full 46% of their field goal attempts.

Four returners made threes with both quantity and quality last year.

Name	Height	3FG	3pt%
Ilian Evtimov	6-8	66	42.6
Engin Astur	6-4	67	38.3
Cameron Bennerman	6-4	42	39.3
Tony Bethel	6-1	39	33.6

They give the Wolfpack a balanced attack that could be difficult for Iowa to fully defend.

Cedric Simmons will be the man in the middle for NC State tonight. He's off to a good start - he leads the team in scoring at 13.4 ppg and is shooting 63%. He's also been a frequent visitor to the free throw line, shooting almost eight times from the stripe per game. At 6-9 and 233, he's not that big, so hopefully Iowa's post guys can contain him and allow the team to focus on NC State's stable of shooters.

Other notable Wolfpack characteristics - they don't rebound well, they don't turn the ball over much, and they force quite a few turnovers.

Even against a tame early schedule, NC State rebounded only 30% of their missed shots, while their opponents got 37% of their's. Given the way Iowa handled rebound-savvy Texas on the glass, Iowa should have a big advantage at rebounding tonight.

It looks to me like we'll have a close game on our hands. It might be slower than a lot of fans like, but it's exciting to have a quality opponent play here in a non-conference game. If Iowa doesn't get burned too badly by NC State's threes, they'll be in good shape. Insightful, huh?

Go Hawks!

Note To Students

2005-11-30T14:32:00.000-06:00

Big game tonight! Iowa hosts North Carolina State, a nationally-ranked team that advanced to the Sweet 16 last year, in a game that will be nationally-televised (ESPN2). Best of all, there's free pizza before the game for student season ticket holders! It'll be behind Section I at 7:45, courtesy of Coach Alford.

By the way, for you students trekking to Carver-Hawkeye tonight, plan to show up early. Fans attending the 5:30 women's game will be allowed to stay for the 8:30 men's game. A ticket for the women's game will be treated as a general admission ticket to the men's game, or the equivalent of a student ticket, so there will be plenty of people at CHA willing to take your seat.

Morning Links

2005-11-30T08:06:00.000-06:00

Just a few Iowa-NC State links to pass along as you get your day started -

Previews
Susan Harman
Jason Brummond
Jim Young, News-Record (NC)

Interviews
Steve Alford
Horner, Brunner
Herb Sendek, Engin Astur

Studying and Basketball
Andrew Logue

Next Up - #24 North Carolina State

2005-11-29T10:58:00.000-06:00

Iowa faces its third ranked opponent in only its sixth game of the season when they play North Carolina State tomorrow night. The game is the final matchup of the annual Big Ten - ACC Challenge that our conference gets dominated in every year.

Since I tend to focus on Big Ten teams, I thought it would help to delve into the mind of an NC State fan and learn a little more about our opponent. Steven, the man behind Section Six, an avid Wolfpack fan, and a very capable stathead, was cool enough to answer a few questions I had about his favorite team. My questions are in bold, his responses are not. Easy enough.

Last year's team was clearly centered around Julius Hodge, a first round NBA draftee. Has a new leader emerged this year, or will the team be much more balanced?

Out of necessity more than anything else, I expect more balance. I don’t think there is anyone on the roster that is talented enough to carry the load like Hodge did last season.

That said, Gavin Grant is doing his best Hodge impression. Like Julius, Gavin has been productive in three major categories (points, rebounds, assists); and like Julius, Gavin has been using a lot of possessions. Grant has a lot of work to do, though. He’s not nearly as efficient as Hodge was.

With the maturation of the Wolfpack’s sophomore class (Brackman, Simmons, Grant), NC State should have more reliable scoring options than it had last year, and that should also lead to more balance.

Which players should we know heading in the game? What do they do well?

In addition to Gavin Grant, who I mentioned above…

Ilian Evtimov is one of the most important pieces to the Wolfpack’s offense. He is an excellent passer and a good outside shooter. As I’m sure you’ll see on Wednesday, he isn’t shy about taking a deep three-pointer. Evtimov also likes to post up near the baseline, about 10-15 feet from the basket and penetrate/distribute the ball from there. He is a non-factor on the glass because he plays more like a guard than a forward. Plus he’s had like fifty knee operations. He will also commit his share of turnovers, but that’s because distributing the ball is a big part of his game.

Cedric Simmons is arguably off to the best start of anyone on the team, leading the Pack with nearly 20 points/40 minutes. Long and lean, he is NC State’s only “true” post player—he won’t be shooting from outside 15 feet too much. Although he’s quite good at blocking shots, his low post defense still needs work.

NC State had one of the country's better offenses last year, and is off to a great start this year, but few people realize that because of the team's slow pace. How are they so efficient?

The slow pace is a big part of the Wolfpack’s success. NC State doesn’t rebound very well (at either end of the court), so the Pack employs a style that helps it maximize its possessions. NC State does that by shooting well and shooting a lot from outside, and by maintaining a low turnover rate. The pace naturally causes some bellyaching among the fans, but I think it’s less frustrating this way. NC State is extremely patient, which makes for a lot more good shots than bad ones.

What other strengths and weaknesses will be apparent Wednesday night?

I like the Wolfpack’s perimeter defense. NC State has big guards that can make open jump shots more difficult to find. But I noticed that Horner and Haluska aren’t lacking height, so we’ll see how that goes.

At the offensive end, NC State is more comfortable operating against a man-to-man defense, as that allows the Pack to be more versatile and to take advantage of 1-on-1 matchups. The offense can bog down and become more tentative when a team goes to zone defense, especially if the three-pointers aren’t falling. Regardless of what the opposition is doing, NC State sometimes relies on the perimeter shot too much.

Rebounding and interior defense are also issues. I’ll get into those things below.

Cedric Simmons and Andrew Brackman were both good shot blockers last year, but aren't very sizeable. Do they make points in the paint hard for all opponents, or can they be neutralized by thicker players, like Iowa's Greg Brunner and Doug Thomas?

Although both put on some muscle during the off-season, I fear that Brunner and Thomas will neutralize them. Simmons and Brackman are sophomores who still need plenty of work against good post players. Against Notre Dame on Saturday, they struggled to defend Torin Francis, who had 13 points on 6-8 shooting and collected 11 rebounds (4 at the offensive end).

Simmons and Brackman both have a couple of inches on Brunner and Thomas, which I’m hoping will help. Even if Brunner and Thomas struggle to score, they will almost certainly win the rebounding battle.

Iowa is a decent rebounding team - does that worry you?

I worry about rebounding every time NC State plays someone not named Stetson. Rebounding has been the Pack’s biggest weakness in the past, and so far this season it doesn’t look like that has changed. Simmons is probably the team’s best rebounder (he should be, anyway), but his rebounding percentage through five games is just 11.5%. That’s well below the numbers that Brunner and Thomas have been putting up in their careers.

Does NC State get overlooked with the other basketball powers in the state?

Definitely. Duke and North Carolina cast big shadows; they’re hard to avoid when you’re just 30 miles away. I think a lot of the older Wolfpack fans have a difficult time because it didn’t used to be this way. I grew up in the ‘80s and ‘90s, so it’s been easier for me to come to terms with the situation.

Don’t get me wrong, though: the unceasing brilliance of Duke and UNC makes me want to hurl.

How do you like the Wolfpack's chances against Iowa? In the ACC?

I expect the game to be close, but I don’t expect the Wolfpack to win. Even though NC State did play a major conference team over the weekend, I don’t really have a feel for how good the Wolfpack is. Playing a road game against a ranked opponent should be instructive. I am looking forward to one of the better games of the challenge.

I’m optimistic about how NC State will fare in the ACC. Georgia Tech and North Carolina are going through massive rebuilding years, and Wake Forest hasn’t looked particularly strong in the early going. Relative to some teams in the league (like those just mentioned), NC State didn’t lose very much. I think a top-4 finish is realistic.

Thanks Steven!

While I Was Away

2005-11-29T08:13:00.000-06:00

Welcome back - hope you had a great holiday weekend. I certainly enjoyed spending some time back at home. I took an extra day off from blogging yesterday, but I'm back and getting excited for a big Top 25 showdown tomorrow night.

There was a game in town while I was out, though. Iowa put a pounding on Texas - San Antonio with another impressive defensive effort, 79-46. They're a little past due, but here are a few notes anyway -

Iowa's frigid three-point shooting continued. They made 3 of 13 Saturday and are shooting just 28% from behind the arc this year.
The Hawks did most of their damage inside - the team shot 31 free throws and grabbed 46% of its offensive rebound opportunities.
Alford was frustrated with his starters for not coming out strong in the second half, so he sent five subs to the scorers table just a few minutes into the half.
Alex Thompson had something of a breakout game, with 11 points (including a three) and 8 rebounds in 18 minutes of play.
The Hawks are a little dinged from the game - Jeff Horner has a thigh bruise, Greg Brunner has a bruised knee (from the Texas game), and Erek Hansen has a minor ankle injury. They'll all be ready to go tomorrow.

In Today's News
- Steve Batterson reports on Jeff Horner's injury status. He's been icing his thigh after playing most of the T-SA game with the injury, but he'll be back in the starting lineup Wednesday night.

- Susan Harman talks about Horner's struggles from behind the three point line this season. Iowa's primary deep threat has made only 8 of his 29 (28%) threes this season, after shooting over 40% for each of the previous two years. As many fans would tell you, Horner shooting has been much poorer when he's off-balance, and Alford agrees.

- Nick Richards of the Daily Iowan highlights Iowa's busy upcoming schedule, which has the team playing five games in ten days, including three games against 2005 NCAA tournament teams in North Carolina State, Northern Iowa, and Iowa State.

- Matt Coss previews what should be a great year for Iowa's intrastate rivalry games between the Hawkeyes, UNI, Drake, and Iowa State. The three big schools return most of their starters from tournament teams, while Tom Davis's Drake squad figures to be much improved, and is coming off a three point loss to Boston College.

More to come later today. . . . . . .

Next Up - Texas-San Antonio

2005-11-26T11:21:00.000-06:00

Texas-San Antonio vs Iowa
12:05 pm

With today's game sandwiched between games agains ranked opponents (Kentucky, Texas, and North Carolina State), and with the student body home for Thanksgiving, it would be easy for Iowa to mail it in and play poorly. We'll find out shortly if Coach Alford can motivate his team to play with intensity anyway.

Hawks Fizzle Down The Stretch

2005-11-22T23:52:00.000-06:00

Texas 68, Iowa 59
ESPN recap

Iowa led one of the best teams in the country with as little as 5:00 remaining, but only scored four points after that point. Adam Haluska rebounded from his poor game against Kentucky and dropped 23 points, but Jeff Horner and Greg Brunner struggled mightily, combining to shoot 4-22. It might be a good sign that Iowa hung on as long as they did with such a poor shooting night, but they'll clearly need better and more balanced offensive play to be a contender in the Big Ten.

I'm heading home sometime tomorrow, but I'll try to get a few thoughts down before I hit the door. Feel free to leave any of your thoughts on Iowa's performance in the comments section.

Next Up - #2 Texas

2005-11-22T14:16:00.000-06:00

#18 Iowa vs #2 Texas
TV: ESPN2
Time: 9:00 pm, CST

Iowa gets another chance to run with the big boys tonight when they meet Texas in the championship game of the Guardian's Classic. While Kentucky's strength was mainly its guards, Texas possesses one of the best frontcourts in the country, and will present a different challenge for the Hawkeyes to overcome.

Texas and Iowa were essentially even last year in terms of offensive and defensive effectiveness. Ken Pomeroy's adjusted efficiency ratings ranked Iowa as the #38 offense and #29 defense in the country, while Texas was #33 and #36. With their offense and defense so similarly productive, the two teams had nearly identical expected winning percentages.

That's the good news - Iowa and Texas were at the same level at the end of last season, and Iowa even beat the Longhorns back in November. Fast forward eight months - Iowa is without a very good defender, who contributed to their numbers for over half the year, but returns everyone else; Texas regains two of its best players who missed a significant portion of the schedule. As Luke Winn wrote two months ago, Texas was much better when they had both LaMarcus Aldridge and P.J. Tucker, and their return should make Texas a contender for the NCAA title this year.

Texas's starting five will look like this tonight -

G - Daniel Gibson, 6-2
G - Kenton Paulino - 6-0
F - P.J. Tucker, 6-5
F - Brad Buckman, 6-8
C - LaMarcus Aldridge, 6-10

That's a very balanced and talented offensive unit. The frontline provides scoring and good offensive rebounding, while Gibson (40%) and Paulino (48%) were reliable three point shooters last year.

Texas also excelled at getting to the free throw line last year, shooting .408 free throws for each field goal attempt, which worked out to about 23 FTA per game. Take a look at how each of the starters performed -

FTA / FGA
Gibson - .436
Paulino - .371
Tucker - .671
Buckman - .632
Aldridge - .779

Comparables from Iowa include Greg Brunner (.500), Doug Thomas (.598), and Mike Henderson (.424).

Texas could change the course of the game early on by feeding the big guys and getting Erek Hansen, Thomas, or (gasp!) Brunner into foul trouble.

Things I Like
Each member of Texas's starting five played at least 34 minutes last night, and only one bench player broke 10 minutes. I'd rather be playing a six-deep team tonight than reliving last year's Maui game against North Carolina, where the Heels used their depth and ran us until we dropped.

Texas did not force many turnovers last year, finishing near the bottom of the national heap in defensive TO%. Instead, their focus was on preventing easy shots, as they finished 16th in opponents' eFG%. Turnovers can be Iowa's nemesis offensively, keeping an otherwise efficient squad from reaching its potential. If Jeff Horner and Adam Haluska can bounce back to post decent shooting nights, Iowa could hang around for a while.

Things That Scare Me
Texas makes very good use of their shots, especially the starting five. Here are the five's True Shot % (shooting efficiency on FGA and FTA) from last year -

Gibson - 57.8%
Paulino - 61.7
Tucker - 58.0
Buckman - 60.0
Aldridge - 66.9

Yowie. Iowa's Big Three of Brunner (57.2), Haluska (61.4) and Horner (56.3) just aren't as impressive. If Texas is going to shoot as well as normal (and that's no guarantee if Hansen stays out of foul trouble), Iowa will have to limit the shots they get by forcing turnovers and preventing second chance points. West Virginia showed that the former can be done when they forced 24 Texas TOs last night. Hopefully Henderson and Tony Freeman (T-Free, anyone?) can replicate that performance. Texas was one of the better offensive rebounding teams in the country last year, and Tucker, Buckman and Aldridge were all very good offensive rebounders, but Iowa can be quite good on the defensive glass, especially when Thomas is on the court.

Other Stuff
Burnt Orange Nation, a Texas fan site, has a preview of the game here. Andy Katz profiled Texas center LaMarcus Aldridge here. He also thinks Texas can win it all this year.

In my estimation, Iowa will need to get several things to go right to have a chance at the end - Horner and Haluska need to play like Horner and Haluska, Iowa needs to limit its turnovers and dog Gibson into a few of his own, and ideally, Iowa would get one of Texas's big guys in foul trouble and off the court. That's a lot of ifs.

Last night's win over Kentucky was fun, though not entirely unexpected. Tonight would be much more of an upset. If Iowa pulls this one off, I'll run naked through the streets*.

How do you see Iowa's chances tonight? Feel free to leave a comment.

Go Hawks!

*dramatization. Professional blogger on a closed course.

Iowa 67, Kentucky 63

2005-11-22T11:26:00.000-06:00

That was fun.

Iowa and Kentucky battled back and forth in a game that was close throughout. The Hawks hit enough free throws in the final minute to eke out a four point win and legitimize their top 25 ranking. Their efforts will be rewarded by a matchup on Tuesday night with #2 Texas, who played a barn-burner of their own in beating West Virginia.

Cold shooting was the story of the night, though Kentucky did score on four straight possessions early in the game. That 10-0 run built a seven point lead, which was biggest margin either team could build. Kentucky hit nine threes in the game, but missed just about everything else en route to a 40.2 eFG%. Iowa wasn't much better, finishing with a 41.7 eFG% and hitting only 4 of 15 threes. Point guard Rajon Rondo entered the game as Kentucky's leading scorer, but he was held to 1-of-9 shooting by Iowa's defensive tag team of Mike Henderson and Tony Freeman.

Henderson's play was a pleasant surprise for most Hawkeye fans, including this one. He repeatedly penetrated the defense, which resulted in shots close to the basket and nine free throw attempts. Mike's 15 points were second-most on the team, and he added seven rebounds and four steals. He was also frequently responsible for bringing the ball up against Kentucky's press. I've given him a lot of heat in the past, but he finally looks like a guy who adds value to the team, especially on defense.

It's a good thing Henderson did step up, however, because the rest of the backcourt was in a funk. Jeff Horner and Adam Haluska combined to shoot 3 for 19, including 2 for 11 on three-pointers. Some of those shots were fairly open, too. Let's hope they make adjustments today, because their shooting will be needed in tonight's game against Texas.

Horner once again showed why he's one of the best passers in the Big Ten. He hit Doug Thomas with a near-perfect alley-oop from half court that the big guy couldn't quite finish. He also found guys for easy layups - the transition pass to Alex Thompson stands out in my mind - and finished with eight assists.

Henderson might have been the breakout player, but Greg Brunner was still the man who carried the team to the winner's circle. His five straight points ended Kentucky's early 10-0 run and quieted the blue-clad section of the crowd, which had been getting pretty loud. He broke a tie with just under four minutes to go with a spinning baseline layup that also drew a foul. He also grabbed 12 rebounds despite often giving a few inches to the players around him. On top of that, my eyes tell me that he might just be the best passing big man in the Big Ten. That pass to Freeman for a layup in the second half was beautiful.

Erek Hansen got into early foul trouble and hit the bench before the 17:00 mark for the second time in three games. He came back in the second half with some monster defensive plays. Any Wildcat who found his way into Hansen's lane was likely to get his shot sent back or at least altered. Erek had five blocks in only 15 minutes of action, and they all came at crucial points. I'm sure Hawkeye fans everywhere cursed him out for the two traveling calls, but he did add a putback and a jump shot and finished with six points. I'm really starting to like our defense when Hansen's on the court.

Thunder Doug's dunkless streak is up to two games, but he contributed in other areas. His line included six points, seven rebounds, and three blocks in 21 minutes. He even added a Thunder Dime ®. He already looks less awkward and more capable of fitting into the offense than he did at any time last year.

Stats of Note
The game had roughly 74 possessions, meaning Iowa's offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions) was about 90.6. That won't get it done most nights, but a defensive efficiency of 85.2 will help you out anytime the offense hits a rough patch. I still feel like this has a lot to do with Kentucky's holes on offense, but we'll take the W.

Iowa turned it over 14 times, or on about 20% of their possessions. That's pretty average on most nights, but against Kentucky it should really be considered a success. A lot of those turnovers were stupid travels and not the result of being overmatched, so I'd expect less of them as the season goes on.

The Hawks actually got beat pretty badly on the boards. They rebounded only 27% of their own misses, mainly because Rondo was grabbing everything in sight. He had 17(!) defensive rebounds, and 19 total. Kentucky rebounded 35% of their missed shots.

From what I've read elsewhere, everyone seems to perceive this game as an upset. Was it really, though? Is this really a Kentucky team that will earn another low seed in the tournament? Who's going to score points for them all year, especially if Rondo has another off night? Defense wins games, but it's still only half of the equation. I think this win will look less and less impressive as the season goes on. Tonight is the real test.